GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Wischhofstr. 1-3
D-24148 Kiel
Germany
Phone: +49-431 600-0
Fax: +49-431 600-2805
E-mail: info(at)geomar.de
January 22, 2024: online Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics Colloquium
Dr. Christopher Piecuch, Associate Scientist in the Physical Oceanography Department, WHOI: "Robust Weakening of the Gulf Stream During the Past Four Decades Observed in the Florida Straits"
When? Monday, January 22, 2024 at 14:00 pm
Where? online only via Zoom: https://geomar-de.zoom.us/j/84289388604?pwd=dGlpeTBUd1Nxem5Ec3dRYXh4NFpOUT09
Abstract:
The Gulf Stream is a vital limb of the North Atlantic circulation that influences regional climate, sea level, and hurricane activity. Given the Gulf Stream's relevance to weather and climate, many studies have attempted to estimate trends in its volumetric transport from various data sets, but results have been inconclusive, and no consensus has emerged whether it is weakening with climate change. Here we use Bayesian analysis to jointly assimilate multiple observational data sets from the Florida Straits to quantify uncertainty and change in Gulf Stream volume transport since 1982. We find with virtual certainty (probability P > 99%) that Gulf Stream volume transport through the Florida Straits declined by 1.2 ± 1.0 Sv in the past 40 years (95% credible interval). This significant trend has emerged from the data set only over the past ten years, the first unequivocal evidence for a recent multidecadal decline in this climate-relevant component of ocean circulation.
