GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Wischhofstr. 1-3
D-24148 Kiel
Germany
Phone: +49-431 600-0
Fax: +49-431 600-2805
E-mail: info(at)geomar.de
11:00, Gr. Konferenzraum [R.075], Düsternbrooker Weg 20
Seasonal to decadal climate predictions are nowadays operationally conducted, though skilful predictions for European climate remain a formidable challenge. I will present recent progress in predicting European climate variability using prediction systems based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). In the presentation, I will also challenge some of the current practices in seasonal to decadal climate predictions, in particular the foci on the analysis of the ensemble-mean forecast and on the initialization as close as possible to the observed state of climate.