GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Wischhofstr. 1-3
D-24148 Kiel
Germany
Phone: +49-431 600-0
Fax: +49-431 600-2805
E-mail: info(at)geomar.de
May 2, 2023: Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics Colloquium
Francisco de Melo Viríssimo, Grantham Research Institute at London School of Economics and Political Science: "Predicting climate under climate change: new insights using low-dimensional dynamical systems"
When? Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 13:30 h CEST
Where? Lecture Hall, Düsternbrooker Weg 20
Abstract:
Climate change is widely seen as one of the biggest threats faced by our generation. Understanding climate change, however, is a matter of predicting the future. Key to this are Earth System Models (ESMs), which are complex mathematical and computational representations of the planet's "spheres" (e.g. atmosphere) and their interactions. Examples are the CMIP-class of models, which underpin high-profile works such as the UN's IPCC reports. However, ESMs are also intrinsically uncertain, making climate prediction a highly nontrivial task.
In this talk, we will review some of the challenges involved in climate prediction, with a focus on the design and interpretation of climate ensembles. We will then present an approach based on the use of low-dimensional, climate-like dynamical systems, which will be used to discuss the design of aspirational ensembles, as well as what is required for a climate ensemble to be informative.
I aim to tailor this talk to a non-mathematical, non-expert audience, so anyone with an interest in the subject is welcome despite their background.
