GEOMAR  Research  Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics  Marine Meteorology

 The Project  |   Team  Related MIPs  CDR options  CDRMIP in CMIP6
Logo Rita Erven (C)

 

 

Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project

CDRMIP in CMIP6

The key questions that are addressed by the first phase of CDRMIP included:

1.) Climate “reversibility”, in the context of using CDR to return high future atmospheric CO2 concentrations to a lower (e.g. present day or pre-industrial) level.

2) Potential efficacy, feedbacks, time scales, and side effects of different CDR methods.

A more detailed general description of the scientific focus and research questions and how these questions apply to individual experiments can be downloaded here. The model simulations are publicly available and hosted on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF).

Project Leaders

  • David P. Keller, Carbon to Sea Initiative
  • Andrew Lenton, CSIRO
  • Vivian Scott, University of Edimburgh
  • Naomi E. Vaughan, University of East Anglia

Publications (in progress)

  • Uzoma, E.K., Adeniyi, M.O. Projected heat/cold waves and heat stress conditions in West Africa under carbon dioxide removal scenarios. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 11, 112, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-025-02297-z, 2025
  • Su, X., Wang, L., Huang, G. et al. Summer precipitation responses to CO2 removal scenario over the transitional climate zone in East Asia and the driving mechanisms. Clim Dyn 63, 153, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07647-2, 2025
  • Gay, B.A., Mandrake, L., Miner, K.R. et al. Assessing the impacts of mitigation and geoengineering intervention scenarios on Earth system dynamics and climatological variability with multimodal simulations. Sci Rep 15, 8158, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-91195-6, 2025
  • Zhang, S., Qu, X., Huang, G., Hu, P., Reduced rainfall over the Amazon basin in an idealized CO2 removal scenario: Remote dynamic processes. J Environ Sci, 155, 525-537, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jes.2024.05.035, 2025
  • Zhang, W., Tao, W., Huang, G. et al. Irreversibility of ENSO impacts on the wintertime anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone to CO2 forcing. npj Clim Atmos Sci 7, 299, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00854-4, 2024
  • Zhang, W., Tao, W., Huang, G. et al. Ongoing intensification of anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone during post-El Niño summer with achieved carbon neutrality. npj Clim Atmos Sci 7, 317, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00871-3, 2024
  • Xu, Z., Kosaka, Y., Toda, M. et al. Irreversibility of winter precipitation over the Northeastern Pacific and Western North America against CO2 forcing. npj Clim Atmos Sci 7, 300, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00864-2, 2024
  • Zhang, S., Qu, X., Huang, G.,  Hu, P., Yang, X., Wang, Y.,  Wu, L., Resilience of Amazon rainfall to CO2 removal forcing, Environ Res Lett, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad193d, 2024
  • Su, X., Huang, G., Wang, L. et al. Global drought changes and attribution under carbon neutrality scenario. Clim Dyn 62, 7851–7868. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07310-2, 2024
  • Séférian, R., Bossy, T., Gasser, T. et al. Physical inconsistencies in the representation of the ocean heat-carbon nexus in simple climate models. Commun Earth Environ 5, 291, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01464-x, 2024
  • Asaadi, A., Schwinger, J., Lee, H., Tjiputra, J., Arora, V., Séférian, R., Liddicoat, S., Hajima, T., Santana-Falcón, Y., and Jones, C. D.: Carbon cycle feedbacks in an idealized simulation and a scenario simulation of negative emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models, Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024.
  • Wei, T., Chen, Y., Wang, H., Hysteresis of Northern Hemisphere permafrost to carbon dioxide emissions, Environ. Res. Lett. 19 094032, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a6, 2024
  • Jiang, J., Cao, L., Jin, X., et al. Response of ocean acidification to atmospheric carbon dioxide removal, J Environ Sci, 140, 79-90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jes.2023.04.029, 2024
  • Freese, L. M., Giani, P., Fiore, A. M., & Selin, N. E., Spatially resolved temperature response functions to CO2 emissions. Geophys Res Lett, 51, e2024GL108788. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108788, 2024
  • Santana-Falcón, Y., Yamamoto, A., Lenton, A. et al. Irreversible loss in marine ecosystem habitability after a temperature overshoot. Commun Earth Environ 4, 343, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01002-1, 2023
  • Qu, X., Huang, G. The primary factors influencing the cooling effect of carbon dioxide removal. npj Clim Atmos Sci 6, 215, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00547-4, 2023
  • Cao, L., Jin, X.,  Jiang, J., Simulated carbon cycle and Earth system response to atmospheric CO2 removal, Adv. Clim. Chang. Res., 14(2), 313-321, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2023.03.001, 2023
  • Zhang, S., Qu, X., Huang, G. et al. Asymmetric response of South Asian summer monsoon rainfall in a carbon dioxide removal scenario, npj Clim Atmos Sci 6, 10,  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00338-x, 2023
  • Song, SY., Yeh, SW., Allan, R.P. et al. Climate sensitivity controls global precipitation hysteresis in a changing CO2 pathway. npj Clim Atmos Sci 6, 156 , https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00484-2, 2023
  • Quilcaille, Y., Gasser, T., Ciais, P., and Boucher, O.: CMIP6 simulations with the compact Earth system model OSCAR v3.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1129–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1129-2023, 2023.
  • Chimuka, V. R., Nzotungicimpaye, C.-M., and Zickfeld, K.: Quantifying land carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions, Biogeosciences, 20, 2283–2299, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, 2023.
  • Park, SW., Kug, JS. A decline in atmospheric CO2 levels under negative emissions may enhance carbon retention in the terrestrial biosphere. Commun Earth Environ 3, 289, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00621-4, 2022
  • Bertini, L., & Tjiputra, J. Biogeochemical timescales of climate change onset and recovery in the North Atlantic interior under rapid atmospheric CO2 forcing. J Geophys Res: Oceans, 127, e2021JC017929. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017929, 2022
  • Song, S.-Y., Yeh, S.-W., An, S.-I., Kug, J.-S., Min, S.-K., Son, S.-W., & Shin, J., Asymmetrical response of summer rainfall in East Asia to CO2 forcing. Sci Bull, 67(2), 213–222. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2021.08.013 , 2022
  • Zhou,S., Huang, P., Xie, S., et al., Varying contributions of fast and slow responses cause asymmetric tropical rainfall change between CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down, Sci Bull, 67(16), https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095927322002948, 2022
  • Schwinger, J., Asaadi, A., Goris, N. et al. Possibility for strong northern hemisphere high-latitude cooling under negative emissions. Nat Commun 13, 1095, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28573-5, 2022
  • Sun, M.-A., Sung, H. M., Kim, J., et al., Reversibility of the Hydrological Response in East Asia from CO2-Derived Climate Change Based on CMIP6 Simulation. Atmosphere, 12(1), 72. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12010072, 2021
  • Ziehn, T., Lenton, A. & Law, R. An assessment of land-based climate and carbon reversibility in the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 25, 713–731, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-019-09905-1, 2020
  • Köhler, P.: Anthropogenic CO2 of high emission scenario compensated after 3500 years of ocean alkalinization with an annually constant dissolution of 5 Pg of olivine, Front Clim, 2, 575744, https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2020.575744, 2020. 
  • Jeltsch-Thömmes, A.,  Stocker, T. F., Joos, F., Hysteresis of the Earth system under positive and negative CO2 emissions, Environ. Res. Lett. 15 124026, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc4af, 2020
  • Tachiiri K., Hajima, T., Kawamiya, M., Increase of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions with decreasing CO2 concentration scenarios, Environ. Res. Lett. 14 124067, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab57d3, 2019
  • Schwinger, J., & Tjiputra, J. F., Ocean carbon cycle feedbacks under negative emissions. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 5062–5070. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077790, 2018
  • Keller, D. P., Lenton, A., Scott, V., Vaughan, N. E., Bauer, N., Ji, D., Jones, C. D., Kravitz, B., Muri, H., and Zickfeld, K.: The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1133-1160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018, 2018
  • Lenton, A., D. Keller, and P. Pfister , How will Earth respond to plans for carbon dioxide removal?, Eos, 98, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017EO068385, 2017