Project

Research Background

The ocean has absorbed vast amounts of “anthropogenic” carbon and heat , due to humans' carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions to the atmosphere and resultant atmospheric warming. We expect absorbed anthropogenic heat and carbon to leak back to the atmosphere under net-negative emissions and atmospheric cooling. Also, anthropogenic climate change leads with climate feedbacks to changes of “natural” conditions of carbon and heat in the ocean that we expect to become increasingly important under conditions of phasing out of CO₂ emissions. It is poorly understood how ocean carbon and heat will respond to “net-zero” or net-negative CO₂ emissions and impact on Earth’s climate evolution.

 

Earth system models used for such research do not resolve the most energetic features of the ocean, that is ocean mesoscale features that mix and transport waters across ocean regions where most of anthropogenic carbon and heat are stored, and by contributing to setting ocean stratification shape natural conditions of carbon and heat.

 

With this we work for enhanced mechanistic understanding of the legacy of anthropogenic heat and carbon in the ocean for the next 10 human generations, and how the representation of ocean mesoscale phenomena is important therein. Such understanding is pressing, given that delay in ambitious action to cut CO₂ emissions leads to further changes of carbon and heat in the ocean, and a reliance on future net-negative emissions in order to meet promised climate targets.

Ongoing projects:

Methods

We work with Earth system models such as FOCI and UVIC to assess ocean storage of carbon and heat under potential net-zero and net-negative CO₂ emission worlds. These models are exposed to CO₂ emissions to assess how under such conditions ocean carbon and heat leak from the ocean and impact climate. We are using, and setting up innovative tools, in particular we trace how anthropogenic carbon and heat spread across the ocean by equipping Earth system models with idealized tracers, developing a novel joint modeling approach for carbon and heat. Further, we work with modeled oceans that resolve mesoscale phenomena to test their importance. The Earth system models are being exposed to CO₂ emissions scenarios that imply ambitious emissions mitigation and are consistent with a warming target e.g,. of around 1.5^oC to by the end of the century, include net-negative emissions after 2050, and extend beyond 2100 to a time scale of “the next 10 generations”, until 2300.