GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Wischhofstr. 1-3
D-24148 Kiel
Germany
Phone: +49-431 600-0
Fax: +49-431 600-2805
E-mail: info(at)geomar.de
14:00 h, Gr. Konferenzraum, Düsternbrooker Weg 20
Abstract:
An El Niño of surprising intensity developed in 2015-16, affecting patterns of weather variability worldwide. The event rivaled the 1997-98 El Niño, the strongest on record, in its magnitude and impacts. It was preceded in early 2014 by basin scale warming that was widely expected to develop into a full-fledged El Niño, but which unexpectedly died; and it will likely be followed by a La Niña cold event later in 2016 and 2017. This presentation will describe the oceanic and atmospheric processes that gave rise to conditions observed over the period 2014-16, how well these conditions were predicted by various forecasting centers, and how they challenge current understand of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
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