GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Wischhofstr. 1-3
D-24148 Kiel
Germany
Phone: +49-431 600-0
Fax: +49-431 600-2805
E-mail: info(at)geomar.de
August 23, 2022: Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics Colloquium
Prof. Dietmar Dommenget, Monash University, Australia: "ENSO vs. Tropical Pacific mean state changes"
When? Tuesday, 23 August 2022 at 11 am
Where? Hörsaal [R B.54], Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel
and ZOOM meeting room: https://geomar-de.zoom.us/j/82590518905?pwd=dUgxampYcS9SdXhsR2E4MzFjZ3lFdz09
Meeting-ID: 825 9051 8905
Kenncode: 298676
Abstract:
In this study I will present two somewhat related topics: ENSO phase space dynamics and tropical Pacific mean state changes. ENSO phase space dynamics are a nice why to illustrate the nature of the ENSO cycle. Studying the ENSO phase space can help to understand how non-linear dynamics control growth and phase speed at different phases of ENSO. The observed tropical Pacific mean state changes are mark by a strong La Nina like pattern, with a near absence of any warming in the last 40yrs. This is in strong contrast to CMIP model projects and is likely to present the first substantial failure of large-scale CMIP model projections. Thus, it suggests that CMIP model are fundamentally biases in their projections of tropical Pacific mean state changes. The talk will discuss to what extend understanding ENSO dynamics may help in understanding this unusual development.
