October 19, 2015: FB1-Seminar

11:00 h, Lecture Hall, Düsternbrooker Weg 20

Abstract:

This study evaluates the remote responses to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), their predictability, and to what extent they can be used for forecasting in practise. One focus will lie on the response over the North Atlantic and Europe, where the El Nino influence is considerably smaller than in large parts of the world.

Most climate and weather prediction models, especially high-top models with sufficient resolution in the stratosphere, show a North Atlantic response to El Nino, which is characterized by a negative anomaly in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and an equatorward shift of the North Atlantic storm track. The pathway of this response is dominated by a strengthening of the Aleutian low in the North Pacific, increasing planetary wave flux into the stratosphere and leading to a weaker stratospheric polar vortex, which then results in a higher probability of stratospheric sudden warmings, causing the negative anomaly (and thereby the increased seasonal predictability) in the NAO.

But what does increased seasonal predictability mean for industry applications, and which information (if any) is used? This study will give an overview with selected applications of seasonal prediction.

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