Credible predictions of climate change on a decadal timescale are of paramount importance for human society’s long-term planning and adaptation strategies. However, it remains a challenge due to the strong overlaps and interactions between the response to external forcing and chaotic internal variability. Solar activity and volcanic eruptions, as the most important natural drivers of the Earth's climate system, could be potential sources for climate prediction skills. We investigate the fingerprints and pathways of solar activity and volcanic eruptions in a “changing” Earth system over the past pre-industry climate to a future hothouse state. We aim to evaluate the impact of extreme solar/volcanic events on climate dynamics and atmospheric chemistry under different climate states and estimate their influences on near-term climate prediction skills and the uncertainty of future climate projection. 

Project: SOLVe

Contributors: Wenjuan Huo

PalMod Phase III is a modelling project that aims to simulate and understand the spectrum of climate variability. We use three complex Earth system models (AWI-ESM, MPI-ESM,CESM) to simulate the climate development starting at the last interglacial 130k ybp, through the last ice age 21k ybp into the present and the future.

Our target is to explicitly answer questions about the acceleration of sea level rise, abrupt climate changes due to restructuring atmospheric or oceanic circulations, or the role of permafrost in a warming world.

PalMod aims to fill knowledge gaps, especially with regard to non-linear behaviour and long-term feedbacks, which could become important if the Earth's surface temperature continues to warm due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.

Project: PalMod

Contributor: Kerstin Fieg, Mojib Latif