NextGEMS: Next Generation Earth Modelling Systems

NextGEMS

NextGEMS: Next Generation Earth Modelling Systems

NextGEMS will develop and apply a new generation of global coupled Storm-Resolving Earth System Models (SR-ESMs) to the study of anthropogenic climate change. SR-ESMs are distinguished by their fine, 3 km, grid in the atmosphere and ocean. This allows a more physical representation of atmospheric and oceanic circulation systems, including their coupling to Earth-system processes such as the carbon, nutrients, water and atmospheric particulate (aerosol) cycles. NextGEMS will develop two prototypes SR-ESMs into production systems and produce multi-decadal (30 y) projections of future climate change. Improved resolution is expected to reduce biases and enhance the realism of these simulations. Ensembles of simulations will address scientific puzzles such as the impact of convective organization on climate sensitivity, the magnitude of aerosol forcing, and the changes in extremes associated with tropical air-sea interaction (including the African Monsoon and Atlantic Hurricanes) and land-surface interaction in the mid-latitudes (dry-spells and links between hydrology and carbon). By developing models that are structurally different than existing ones, NextGEMS will reshape perceptions of uncertainty and provide a basis for reassessing the risk global warming poses for society and ecology. By focusing on just two models, NextGEMS builds a European community of scientists and users around a technologically more ambitious modelling enterprise. This concentration is needed if Europe is to maintain its position at the forefront of Earth-system modelling. By representing the scales of motion and driving forces of high impact weather globally, NextGEMS links more directly to applications, thereby shortening the value chain. Knowledge coproduction projects focusing on how circulation influences both solar energy production and marine nutrients will demonstrate how applications and downstream users can thus be directly integrated into the model development enterprise.

September 2021

August 2025

11000000

345000

EU / H2020

Max-Planck-Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften e. V. (MPG), Germany

Marcus Dengler

Max Planck Society (MPG), Germany
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Germany
University of Bergen, Norway
University of Copenhagen, Denmark
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), France
Stockholm University, Sweden
University of Warsaw, Poland
University of Oxford, UK
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Spain
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC), Spain
University of Reading, UK
Wageningen University & Research (WUR), The Netherlands
ETH Zurich, Switzerland
University of Bern, Switzerland
Portuguese Sea and Atmosphere Institute (IPMA, Portugal
University of Helsinki, Finland
University of Trento, Italy
German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ), Germany
Complutense University of Madrid, Spain
Institute of Research for the Development (IRD), France
Iberdrola, Spain
Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles (ISRA), Senegal
Latest Thinking GmbH, Germany
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany

Projektseite